The drumbeat for the 2025 Masters has started early, and the futures boards are already twitching. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have soaked up most of the early tickets, no surprise there, and both have drawn steady action since last spring. Scheffler, now the defending champ, looks sharp again in the opening months of 2025. McIlroy, chasing that last piece of the career Grand Slam, is playing his best major golf since 2014.
Models and pundits keep circling those two, although Augusta has a habit of tugging a rabbit out of the hat. As prices settle and the field firms up, a couple of chasers might still elbow into the conversation before the azaleas pop.
Scheffler and McIlroy still set the pace up top
Oddsmakers have, more or less, agreed on the favorites. Scheffler is posted as short as +400 and holds support down to +455 in early trading. That combination of week-to-week consistency and his control on Augusta’s greens last spring makes him the default pick for anyone who prefers the chalk. McIlroy sits between +650 and +656, and the story more or less writes itself: arguably the best player yet to win the Masters, four top fives here, and already two wins in 2025. The pressure builds every April, but this feels like as clean a runway as he has had in a while. If he arrives healthy, those numbers might tighten. After that, the board starts to stretch.
The chasing pack: Rahm, Morikawa, and the new wave
Golf betting trends have pushed Jon Rahm into the next tier after Scheffler and McIlroy, with odds fluctuating from +1300 to +1655 depending on the book and market movement.
Rahm’s profile is tailor-made for Augusta and, yes, he already owns a green jacket, but his current LIV cadence muddies week-to-week reads for some analysts. Collin Morikawa follows around +1600 to +1700, steady in majors yet still waiting on a true Augusta peak. Ludvig Åberg and Xander Schauffele trade between +1800 and +2070, their prices creeping shorter thanks to crisp approach numbers and early-season results. Bryson DeChambeau sits in that +1655 to +2000 band, popular with bettors who like his aggression and the recent major top fives. Different routes, same goal. The models keep leaning on Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and Par-5 Scoring, and on those markers Scheffler, Schauffele, and Åberg tend to pop.
The odds at a glance
Implied probability is 100 divided by the decimal odds. These lines were current on 30 May 2024 and will shift as sportsbooks tweak prices in the lead-up to Masters week.
Past champions linger while models tighten the list
The longer prices fill out the board. Hideki Matsuyama at +3300 stands out as reliable and, of course, already a green jacket owner. Then come the nostalgic names with uncertain ceilings: Sergio Garcia at +8000, Adam Scott at +15000, Phil Mickelson at +12000. Augusta’s invitation setup brings former winners back each year, so Bubba Watson is in, and even Fred Couples appears at +200000. One caution we keep relearning: the fairytale is often mispriced.
Most data sets give these veterans well under a 1 percent chance. New blood keeps arriving, and sleepers like Davis Riley at +60000 or Patton Kizzire at +100000 show why those big numbers tempt. Surprises do happen, but as April nears the market usually narrows to the top eight to ten names.
Trends to watch and spots where value may appear
Sharp bettors are eyeing top-five and top-ten markets for cleaner edges, with McIlroy around +150 for a top five and roughly -140 to finish top ten at some shops. Those who want bigger swings often pivot to first-round leader, daily matchups, or nationality props that post during tournament week. Analytics tools keep bumping up the weight on Par-5 Scoring and Around-the-Green play as the course evolves. Early forecasts look classic Augusta, highs near 70 and only some Thursday clouds, which can reward confident short game operators. For 2025, the consensus drifts back to Scheffler’s steadiness and McIlroy’s relentless push, while the most plausible surprise seems to come from the new wave in Åberg, Schauffele, or Morikawa. It is still a title that rarely falls to a one-dimensional game.
Golf betting carries significant risk and rewards are never guaranteed, even for seasoned punters.
Set limits before you start, and if a pick misses, let it go rather than chasing. The Masters comes once a year, and while long shots make good headlines, consistent results usually come from careful analysis and a disciplined staking plan. If gambling begins to feel out of control, reach out to a professional organization or a responsible gambling resource. Enjoy the week and keep your play within safe boundaries.
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