For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads to Florida to begin the Florida Swing at PGA National for the Cognizant Classic.
This Week: Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
- Date: February 26-March 1, 2026
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
- Course: PGA National
- How to watch: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN +
- Purse: $9,600,000
- Defending champ: Joe Highsmith
Which skills the course rewards
PGA National opened in 1981 and is a Par 70 at around 7,150 yards on Bermuda greens. The course has hosted a Ryder Cup and PGA Championship, and it’s now famous for the Jack Nicklaus redesign that included naming holes 15-17 the “Bear Trap.” The Bear Trap typically plays as one of the hardest three-hole stretches on the Tour, along with holes 4-6 on the same course.
As you could expect with a very hard course like PGA National with 26 water hazards and plenty of bunkers as well, ball striking is needed this week. When birdies are harder to come by and wayward shots turn into double bogeys, you’re going to want a simple recipe of hitting the ball straight and pure.
The last five winners here have averaged around 8th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week. You just can’t fake it around here.
Joe Highsmith’s finish of 23rd in Strokes Gained: Approach last year was the worst ball striking finish of any winner in the last eight years, and the last time a winner lost strokes in any ball striking category at PGA National was Padraig Harrington with -0.2 Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in 2015.
The best yardage bucket for this week is from 175-200 Yards. That number is by far the largest distribution of approach shots at PGA National and also includes the tee shots on the 15th and 17th holes in the Bear Trap. That means many of a player’s biggest shots all week will be in that range and incredibly important to who is in contention.
We’ll prefer straight drivers at PGA National due to the trouble around, but distance has actually been very advantageous for players who can keep it out of the hazards. But the rough at PGA National isn’t penalizing, and we’ve seen both short and long hitters have success.
For the short game, I’m equally weighing Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. While you can ball strike your way around here to win, you’ll always prefer a strong putter on Bermuda for the week.
Scrambling isn’t too tough around PGA National, but the sheer amount of scrambling opportunities—PGA National’s greens are often the hardest to hit on Tour—causes the short game to need some sharpness all week.
Finally, I like looking at bogey avoidance at PGA National to see who is managing to save par lately. This list tends to include major championship contenders and the game’s best ball strikers, so it can be valuable. While we usually look for birdie makers most weeks, this is a unique ranking that highlights some different guys in the model who can limit mistakes.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Off the Tee, 15% proximity: 150-200 Yards, 10% SG: Total (Florida), 10% bogey avoidance, 10% greens in regulation percentage, 10% SG: Around the Green and 10% SG: Putting (Bermuda).
Power Rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Mac Meissner (+4600, +780, +370)
Model rank: 2nd
The model darling is back in the power rankings, and he’s at a course this week where I think he could truly contend. Meissner was 18th last time out in a loaded Phoenix Open field. Now he gets to play on Bermuda greens and could have a real chance at contending. Ranks 10th in bogey avoidance.
9. Davis Thompson (+3400, +620, +305)
Model rank: 21st
Thompson has hit the ball really well so far this year, but he’s been an absolute disaster on the greens. That’s no surprise considering he’s a bad putter, but Bermuda is his best surface and should provide him some comfort this week. Ranks 15th in SG: OTT.
8. Max McGreevy (+4300, +740, +360)
Model rank: 4th
Like Thompson, McGreevy is a pretty bad putter overall, but he actually gains strokes on Bermuda greens. Considering a solid start to the year with positive results from tee-to-green, he should have a nice chance this week to hole putts and get in contention here like he did last year with a T4. Ranks 2nd in GIR%.
7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+4000, +680, +330)
Model rank: 3rd
It’s surprising Bezuidenhout hasn’t performed well at PGA National when you consider his strengths. He’s one of the best scramblers in the world and consistently ranks near the top in bogey avoidance. It wouldn’t be surprising if he finally figures out this test this week. Ranks 1st in bogey avoidance.
6. Keith Mitchell (+2600, +510, +255)
Model rank: 8th
Mitchell is headed for his happy place. He has a pair of T9’s and a victory here since 2019 and is coming in with some solid form after a T11 at Torrey Pines. As usual with him, the putter will be the key, but his ability to find greens and hit it a long way should put him in a good position. Ranks 3rd in SG: OTT.
5. Michael Thorbjornsen (+2600, +500, +250)
Model rank: 11th
Thorbjornsen has been all over the place this year. He was dreadful at the AmEx and Pebble Beach, but he nearly won in Phoenix and played well at Torrey Pines. He hit it well as a debutant here last year, but struggled on the greens. Ranks 3rd in bogey avoidance.
4. Nicolai Hojgaard (+2400, +475, +240)
Model rank: 14th
Nicolai has been playing some really impressive golf this year across the PGA and European Tours. All facets of his game seem to be clicking, highlighted by a T3 at the Phoenix Open, where he gained across all categories. He finished T18 here last year with a great week on the greens. Ranks 7th in SG: APP.
3. Daniel Berger (+3300, +600, +295)
Model rank: 5th
Berger has three top 5’s at PGA National and always feels like a threat when he gets home to Florida. Bermuda is the only surface he putts well on. The form has been scattered with poor performances in California, but he was T6 in Hawaii and T16 in Phoenix. Ranks 3rd in SG: TOT (Florida).
2. Shane Lowry (+1950, +385, +196)
Model rank: 29th
Lowry seems primed for another great performance at PGA National. He’s done everything but win here, with finishes of T11, T4, T5 and 2nd in the last four years. He’s also picking up form after finishing T8 at Pebble Beach and T24 at Riviera. Ranks 1st in SG: TOT (Florida).
1. Ryan Gerard (+1950, +390, +198)
Model rank: 1st
Gerard has cooled off a tiny bit after starting the year with a pair of runner-ups and a T11 at Torrey Pines. He’s still hitting it wonderfully, and his starts at PGA National have resulted in a 4th and T25. This is the exact type of track he should contend at, and a good putting performance could easily land him the trophy. Ranks 1st in proximity: 150-200 yards.
Top Photo Caption: The Bear Trap at PGA National is one of the most feared stretches on the PGA Tour. (GETTY IMAGES/Ben Jared)
The post Cognizant Classic: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets appeared first on MyGolfSpy.
Article Link: https://mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/cognizant-classic-power-rankings-gambling-odds-and-favorite-bets/