For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads to San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.
This Week: Farmers Insurance Open
- Date: January 29-February 1, 2026
- Location: San Diego, California
- Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course
- How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel, ESPN +
- Purse: $9,600,000
- Defending champ: Harris English
Which skills the course rewards
Torrey Pines was designed by William F. Bell and opened in 1957. It has hosted this tournament since 1968, with the South Course and North Course splitting the first two days before the South Course hosts both weekend rounds. The South Course is the more famous and difficult course, playing as a par 72 at around 7,700 yards. It hosted the 2008 and 2021 U.S. Opens.
The North Course is also a par 72 at a shorter 7,300 yards. Although both courses sit right on the coast, many holes have classical design features that only occasionally see severe terrain.
While we don’t want to dismiss the North Course’s one round, we don’t get strokes gained data from rounds there, so the focus should mostly be on the three rounds at the South Course. Thankfully, the difference between the two is fairly small, with the tracks favoring similar play styles.
The major talking point at Torrey Pines is distance. Distance has led to a ton of success at the Farmers, and players typically average 300 yards off the tee here. With razor-thin fairways and few forced layups, players let it fly around here and don’t worry about the rough that all players will inevitably find nearly 50 percent of the time.
But recent winners like Harris English, Patrick Reed and Marc Leishman have shifted the narrative toward the short game a bit more.
Torrey Pines greens are very difficult to hit, and the pins are tough to get close to compared to the average course. Most who play well here hit a ton of greens in regulation and don’t find much trouble with their irons. If you don’t hit it 330 yards or go unconscious with the putter, you’ll need to pepper greens.
Since greens are tougher to hit, we’ll also value scrambling a decent amount this week to see who can save themselves in bad spots around the Torrey Pines greens. While it hasn’t correlated with success as much as you’d think historically, we’ve seen guys like Brandt Snedeker and Reed be able to scramble around enough to come out on top.
I also love to look at Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa greens. Torrey Pines’ greens are among the toughest to putt on, especially from short range. That’s due to some bumpy Poa annua greens that can get nasty late in the day. The last six winners in this tournament gained a ton of strokes on the greens, including some strong putters like English, Max Homa, Reed and Leishman.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 15% Strokes Gained: Total, 15% Strokes Gained: Approach, 15% Driving Distance, 15% Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa), 10% Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 10% Proximity: 200+ Yards, 10% Greens in Regulation Percentage and 10% Proximity from Rough.
Power Rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Pierceson Coody (+6200, +1025, +490)
Model rank: 8th
Coody continues to trend in the right direction and seems poised to make a real breakout at any moment. He’s begun the year with T13 and T18 finishes at tournaments that don’t utilize his distance, but that changes this week. Ranks 2nd in greens in regulation percentage.
9. Max Homa (+4700, +850, +485)
Model rank: 2nd
It’s been a long journey, but it does feel like Homa finally sees the light at the end of the tunnel. The 2023 Farmers winner has an incredible history at Torrey Pines, and he hit the ball wonderfully at PGA West last week after an encouraging fall season. Ranks 2nd in SG: Putting on Poa.
8. Chris Gotterup (+2900, +560, +270)
Model rank: 38th
The Sony winner now heads to Torrey Pines where he’ll be able to get much more aggressive off the tee than at Waialae. He finished T25 here last year and checks all the boxes, except for a poor history of putting on Poa greens. Ranks 9th in driving distance.
7. Si Woo Kim (+2400, +455, +225)
Model rank: 26th
It’s been quite the strong start to the year for Kim, who has a solid but unspectacular history at Torrey Pines. Kim has now finished T4, 3rd, T11 and T6 in his last four worldwide starts thanks to some elite ball striking. Ranks 1st in SG: Approach.
6. Hideki Matsuyama (+2900, +540, +270)
Model rank: 30th
Matsuyama started the year with a nice tournament in Hawaii, which was only a month after he took out some of the world’s best in the Bahamas. He has superb course history at Torrey Pines but hasn’t lifted the trophy yet. Poa is Matsuyama’s best putting surface. Ranks 6th in Proximity: 200+ yards.
5. Patrick Cantlay (+2250, +440, +220)
Model rank: 10th
Cantlay had a solid start to his season with another strong finish at AmEx despite not holing many putts. That was the theme for him last year as well, so it’s something to keep an eye on. Cantlay hasn’t played well here in three starts, but he did contend at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey. Ranks 12th in SG: Approach.
4. Maverick McNealy (+3200, +580, +290)
Model rank: 18th
I’m expecting a big year from McNealy, who has slowly but steadily climbed the world rankings and become one of the more consistent players on Tour. He has a lot of solid form at Torrey Pines and is an exceptional putter on Poa.
3. J.J. Spaun (+2500, +480, +240)
Model rank: 4th
Spaun was a bit shaky in Hawaii, so this will be a good event to see where the world No. 7 is at as we head into bigger events. He finished T15 here last year in what were the early days of his meteoric rise in the rankings. Ranks 2nd in SG: Approach.
2. Cameron Young (+1800, +375, +194)
Model rank: 1st
This will be a big year for Young after he finally broke out in 2025 with his first win, along with very consistent play. He’s only played this event twice, but Torrey Pines should theoretically be a great course for him with his distance off the tee and ball striking. Ranks 2nd in SG: Total.
1. Xander Schauffele (+1450, +305, +160)
Model rank: 8th
It was a largely underwhelming season for Schauffele after coming back from injury, but he closed the year out right with a win at the Tour’s event in Japan. He surely wants to win his home event badly, and the recent results at Torrey Pines suggest that he’s not far off at all. Ranks 13th in SG: Total.
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