I’ve been on record saying I believe we’re due for a surprise Masters winner.
Over the past decade or so, most green jackets have gone to favorites or established fixtures among the game’s elite: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods and the like.
Yes, we’ve had guys like Danny Willett (2016) swoop in for a green jacket. Hideki Matsuyama was considered a longshot prior (+5000) prior to winning in 2021.
But the category of surprise Masters winners has been light in recent times. The powerhouse players have been winning.
I think we’re due for that to change. My prediction is that someone will come from outside the top 10 guys on the odds sheet to claim this year’s Masters.
Why?
As I’ll explain, several of the top players have some significant red flags heading to Augusta this year. At the same time, there are a few intriguing “longshot” players who have been regularly contending (and winning) PGA Tour events.
We’ll get to those darkhorse candidates in another story but I wanted to start with the players who won’t win next week.
These are the guys who everyone is going to back because they are big names with the best odds to win … but I am convinced none of these players will be victorious.
1. Scottie Scheffler
It’s always tough to go against Scheffler given his dominant run over the past few years but I’m thinking the vibes are a little off heading into the year’s first major.
First off, Scheffler hasn’t competed since The Players Championship. It’s been a rarity for Masters winners to take a whole month off prior to Augusta.
And while Scheffler got off to a hot start to the season, his play has been a little sketchy his last two starts. Concern over possible swing changes and negative body language are also reasons why I’m scared of going with the world’s top-ranked player next week.
Scheffler ranked No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Approach last season. He is No. 80 in the same stat so far this season. Is that an anomaly or a trend?
It’s also within reason to think it will be very difficult for any player to win three out of five Masters which Scheffler (2022 and 2024 champion) would accomplish with another victory here.
2. Rory McIlroy
For starters, there hasn’t been a back-to-back victor at the Masters since Tiger Woods (2001-2002). Only three men have ever successfully defended their title.
McIlroy’s Masters triumph in 2025 was storybook—and it took a lot out of him emotionally. It’s reasonable to wonder whether he will be fully locked in for this year’s tournament.
On top of that, McIlroy had a WD from Bay Hill due a back injury and then a poor outing at The Players. His back was a concern heading into TPC Sawgrass as well.
Like Scheffler, he is going nearly a month between starts as he opted to skip on the Texas events that lead into the Masters.
3. Jon Rahm
Listed second on the odds sheet, I’m getting a little tired of waiting for Rahm to be a factor in majors.
He hasn’t seriously contended since winning the 2023 Masters. That was 10 majors ago. It’s fair to wonder whether the switch to LIV has changed something within Rahm. It feels like he has lost a bit of an edge to his game.
He’s still a world-class player—ranked No. 2 in Data Golf—and he boasts an excellent course history at Augusta.
But for the time being, this is a “prove it” situation. I can’t pick him in a major until he shows he is mentally ready for the challenge.
4. Collin Morikawa
The argument against Morikawa (+3100) is pretty clean-cut.
He had to pull out of The Players with a back injury and then had another WD prior to this week’s Valero Texas Open due to the lingering spasms.
That doesn’t inspire much confidence. Morikawa has been working on swing speed gains and it appears that might be contributing to his health issues.
Morikawa also hasn’t posted a top-10 finish in his last six major appearances which is a little disconcerting but could have been overlooked without the current injury.
The back injury is a shame because Morikawa came into The Players with some outstanding form. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and had a couple of high finishes right after that win. It seemed like he could be a trendy pick for Augusta.
5. Ludvig Aberg
Aberg is coming off two excellent starts in Florida including when he choked away a late lead at The Players on Sunday.
He also has two strong performances in as many starts at the Masters, including 2024 when he finished runner-up to Scheffler.
For those reasons, Aberg will be a popular pick at +2000, currently No. 6 on the odds sheet.
I’m going the opposite way, however.
I find that Aberg hasn’t quite developed that killer instinct when he gets into contention. I think it will come at some point but we’re not there yet.
He’s played in eight majors and missed the cut in half of them. Aberg’s ceiling is high but his floor has been low for a player of his caliber.
He also has a clear short-game weakness as he ranked outside the top 100 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green the previous two seasons. That isn’t the preferred weakness at Augusta.
I hope Aberg wins a green jacket at some juncture but I think we’re a little early in his story. The Masters heavily favors veteran players and Aberg needs a few more reps around ANGC.
What do you think of this list? Let me know in the comments.
Top Photo Caption: Ludvig Aberg is a favorite for next week’s Masters. (GETTY IMAGES/Ben Jared)
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