If you’ve only watched the last few years at the Masters, you would think that betting on long shots to win would be a waste of money.
That’s been correct in recent years.
The last four winners—Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler (twice) and Jon Rahm—were all ranked third or better in the world rankings going into the week. We also had Dustin Johnson dominate in 2020 as world No. 1 and Tiger Woods take home the green jacket in 2019, with odds around 14/1.
That means six of the last seven winners have been among the top favorites heading into Augusta.
But it hasn’t always been the case. In fact, Augusta has been home to a ton of surprise winners throughout its history.
From 2007 to 2011, we saw four winners tee off at odds of more than 100/1. Zach Johnson (125/1) won in ’07 with a short-game master class. Trevor Immelman won the year after at 150/1 in one of the most shocking results in major championship history. Angel Cabrera followed that with a 125/1 win in a sudden-death playoff and Charl Schwartzel joined the crew two years later with an incredible finish to win at 100/1.
And even in more recent years, we’ve seen winners with decent odds. Hideki Matsuyama was as much as 60/1 before his 2021 victory. Danny Willett’s shocking final-round comeback in 2016 came at 50/1 and Patrick Reed was 40/1 for his 2018 win.
For the Masters, I consider long shots to start at 50/1 so let’s take a look at five players who could fit that bill and be a surprise winner of the green jacket in 2026.
These are five players I believe could absolutely contend this week.
All odds from DraftKings sportsbook (Win/Top 5/Top 10)
Adam Scott (+6200/+860/+365)
It wouldn’t feel right not to have a veteran in the group. While Augusta tends to favor long hitters in their prime, it’s also common to see some experienced players who know their way around the famous green complexes.
Adam Scott is just that. The Aussie is making his 25th start at the Masters and the 2013 champion is coming in with some of his best form in quite some time. Scott played wonderfully back home in Australia to end the year and he then posted a fourth at Riviera and 11th at Bay Hill to start his PGA Tour season strongly.
The numbers look great. Scott is hitting his irons very well, ranking fourth in SG: Approach in 2026. He’s also still plenty long, averaging 312.2 yards off the tee this year, 26th on Tour. The only thing that has slowed him down a bit is an inconsistent putter and inaccuracy off the tee. We know that Augusta can be kind to wayward tee shots so one decent week on the greens could put Scott back in contention.
Shockingly, he’s only logged one top 10 at Augusta since winning in 2013. I think that could change this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+8400/+1100/+465)
Nicolai Hojgaard has been a mainstay on my power rankings this year and he’ll be one of my favorite long shots this week. The Dane has climbed from outside the top 70 in the world to 36th with consistent play this season. He’s already logged three finishes of T6 or better going back to the Phoenix Open.
In Houston, he finished second. And while Memorial Park is no Augusta National, driving distance and scrambling on short grass do carry over. Although he missed the cut at Augusta last year, Hojgaard actually held the solo lead heading to the second nine on Saturday as a debutant in 2024.
He can build on that success from ’24 and take some wonderful form into this week. Hojgaard has been putting it beautifully and hitting his irons really well. Like Scott, wayward drives tend to be his downfall but that should be less penalizing this week, just as it was in Houston.
Akshay Bhatia (+6660/+900/+380)
This one feels obvious.
Akshay Bhatia has been one of the top players on Tour this year, winning at Bay Hill and contending at Scottsdale and Pebble Beach. He also posted solid finishes at Riviera and Sawgrass.
I’m not the biggest fan of his preparation coming in, which is my only gripe here. Bhatia recently traveled across the globe to play the Hero Indian Open and performed very poorly, missing the cut.
If we ignore that, though, Bhatia has been one of the steadiest players in golf lately. He’s also a left-hander which we know bodes well at ANGC. While he hasn’t contended in two tries at Augusta, finishes of T35 and T42 suggest he’s gotten in the reps needed to learn this place and has also performed well on and around the greens here.
The main thing to watch for with Bhatia is his scrambling. The ball striking and putting have been very strong in 2026 but if there’s one thing that can bite him, it tends to be mistakes around the greens.
Marco Penge (+16000/+1900/+770)
If you’re looking for a real long shot, I think Penge is your guy.
It’s hard to imagine any players at over 100/1 winning this tournament. So when I’m looking way down the board, I’m looking for upside and potential. Marco Penge is the best fit.
The obvious concern here is that Penge will be a debutant which means he’ll need to do something nobody has done since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. It’s unlikely, but that’s why he is 160/1 to win. Those top-five and top-10 prices look great, though.
Penge is one of the longest hitters in the world and currently trails only McIlroy in SG: Off the Tee. He showed some versatility when finishing T4 at the Valspar, a tournament that usually doesn’t get overpowered. He was also T16 at Riviera, a course that has some crossover success with Augusta.
Jacob Bridgeman (+9400/+1175/+485)
After taking some guys who can bomb the ball off the tee, I figured I’d have some balance by including Jacob Bridgeman.
I’ll be honest. Bridgeman is not usually the type of player I target at Augusta. He’s short off the tee and isn’t even a very good scrambler. But the truth of the matter is that he’s currently leading the FedEx Cup standings. Bridgeman just dominated at Riviera which, again, correlates to success at Augusta. He followed that up with a T5 at Sawgrass.
Bridgeman has yet to finish worse than T18 this year in eight starts. And each of the last three winners at the Masters were coming into the tournament as arguably the best players on Tour in that respective season.
So while Bridgeman doesn’t necessarily fit the profile of a player you look for this week, he’s been far too good this year to ignore at such a high price like this.
Who are favorite long shots this week? Let me know in the comments.
Top Photo Caption: Akshay Bhatia has the game to pull off a Masters upset. (GETTY IMAGES/Chris Condon)
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