It’s been more than 17 months since Jon Rahm last lifted an individual trophy.
At LIV Adelaide, it seemed like the streak would end—but Anthony Kim beat Rahm by eight shots in the final round to complete one of the best comeback stories we’ve ever seen in golf.
Rahm has played in 15 straight LIV events without winning despite teeing off as a favorite in all of them.
Some people are concerned, but I’m not there … yet.
Rahm has been a disappointment in majors
In his last two years at major championships, Rahm hasn’t necessarily performed poorly but he hasn’t been a factor, either.
The results have been T45-MC-T7-T14-T8-T7-T34. In those three top-10 finishes, Rahm lost by eight, seven and five shots. That five-shot margin at the 2025 U.S. Open was the closest he’s been and that was fueled by a final-round best 67 that never had him in the discussion for a title.
Without trying to make this too much of a LIV versus PGA Tour discussion, Rahm hasn’t contended for a major since he made the move over in 2024.
In 2025, he had his first winless year since 2016. In fact, he had multiple worldwide wins every year except 2021 when he won his first major championship at Torrey Pines in the U.S. Open.
I’m not ready to sound the alarm yet but I would be if he fails to contend again in 2026.
When looking at the numbers, nothing has been overly off for Rahm in the majors. Other than a poor ball-striking week at the 2024 PGA, Rahm has gained strokes in every other major. The short game has failed to catch any fire which really can be the difference between an uneventful top 10 and being near the lead on Sunday.
Rahm’s putter has been great so far in his two events in 2026. In Riyadh, he gained 5.44 strokes with the flat stick. In Adelaide, he gained 4.72, along with 2.64 shots around the green.
Winning is hard
It can be hard to win. The most important part of it is getting yourself in position to do so.
And Rahm has still done that plenty on LIV. In 2025, he finished second four times. He totaled seven top-five and 12 top-10 finishes in 13 total LIV events. And in the first two LIV events of 2026, he finished solo second in both.
It’s clear Rahm is still playing consistently strong golf. Data Golf ranks Rahm as the second-best player in the world behind Scottie Scheffler.
So, again, I’m not too worried yet. If Rahm was stringing together poor finishes in his LIV tournaments, that would be a bigger sign of worry. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are examples of players who did, in fact, significantly lose form after joining LIV.
Koepka was 31st in points last year on LIV which clearly helped signal that it was time for a change for the former world No. 1.
Johnson decided to re-sign with LIV but he’s missed six of his last eight cuts in major championships.
Rahm’s situation does not approach the depth of their concerns. And for anyone who thinks he may be putting too much emphasis on winning, I strongly doubt someone with his winning pedigree has some sort of block preventing him from reaching the finish line.
I would need to see much more scar tissue before that becomes a legitimate worry.
Analyzing Rahm’s chances at 2026 majors
Masters (Augusta National)
Rahm has failed to get much going at the Masters since his 2023 victory. His title defense was very poor as he struggled to make one of the easiest cuts in golf and beat only 10 of the players who made the weekend. He struggled again last year with an opening-round 75 before finishing T14.
But Rahm has clearly enjoyed Augusta overall. He strung together four consecutive top 10s between 2018 and 2021 before putting on the green jacket two years later.
He’ll play three consecutive weeks starting this week in Hong Kong and then take a considerable break leading into the Masters. If he plays well, I imagine he’ll be the second favorite to win.
PGA Championship (Aronimink)
There’s very little history at Aronimink. It hasn’t hosted a major championship since 1962 when Gary Player won. Rahm did play it at the 2018 BMW Championship as a 23-year-old. He played decently, finishing T24.
The general sense is that Aronimink will favor bombers which certainly helps the big-hitting Rahm.
U.S. Open (Shinnecock Hills)
Like Aronimink, Rahm has a one-start sample size at Shinnecock Hills, also in 2018 when he missed the cut. He hasn’t missed a U.S. Open cut since then, taking home the 2021 title and adding three other top 10s.
While U.S. Opens often favor bombing and set up well for Rahm, Shinnecock in 2018 heavily favored accurate drivers. If that’s the case again, it likely won’t be Rahm’s best chance in 2026.
Open Championship (Royal Birkdale)
The Open Championship was easily Rahm’s worst major early in his career but he’s begun to turn it around. He played Birkdale as a 22-year-old in the 2017 Open, finishing T44.
Like Shinnecock, Birkdale doesn’t favor driving distance a whole lot but you also don’t need to hit it overly straight there. It’s likely not the best fit for Rahm but nobody should be surprised if he contends.
Overall, I’m not worried about Rahm. If he goes another year without wins to show for it?
We can talk then.
Top Photo Caption: Rahm blasts from a bunker during LIV Adelaide. (GETTY IMAGES/Mark Brake)
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