For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, we are headed to the Philadelphia area for the PGA Championship at Aronimink.
PGA Championship
- Date: May 14-17, 2026
- Location: Newtown Square, Pennsylvania
- Course: Aronimink Golf Club
- How to watch: CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+
- Purse: $19,000,000
- Defending champ: Scottie Scheffler
Which skills the course rewards
Aronimink Golf Club was designed by the legendary Donald Ross and opened for play in 1928. Gil Hanse renovated it in 2018 looking ahead to the PGA Championship, and he lengthened it close to the 7,400 yards as a Par 70 it should play at this week.
Located near Philadelphia, Aronimink is a classically styled Pennsylvania course, not entirely dissimilar to Oakmont, last year’s U.S. Open host. Aronimink won’t be nearly as difficult, but it should be a more balanced test than recent PGA Championships that have been susceptible to the bomb-and-gouge strategy.
We don’t have much of a course history to base ourselves on here. Aronimink hosted the BMW Championship in 2018, and the AT&T National in 2010 and 2011. Justin Rose was the standout in those tournaments, winning the AT&T in 2010 and losing in a playoff to Keegan Bradley in 2018. The leaderboard showcased a variety of skillsets in 2018, which is in line with what I expect this week.
Elite driving shouldn’t be as necessary as most PGA’s, so finding fairways will be plenty valuable. Proximity from 150-200 yards should be the most important bucket since Aronimink won’t play terribly long, and precise iron play will be the priority here since short-siding yourself or finding the wrong tier should be very penalizing on these Ross green complexes.
Scrambling will be plenty important, especially from the plethora of greenside bunkers and the shaved areas that come into play on the back nine. I expect most players to struggle with the flat stick, so I won’t put too much emphasis on putting.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Total, 15% SG: Around the Green, 10% SG: Off the Tee, 10% good drive %, 10% SG: Putting (Bent), 5% proximity: 150-200 yards, 5% sand save %, and 5% scrambling: rough %.
Power rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Tyrrell Hatton (+6000, +830, +390)
Model rank: 1st
Hatton leads the model, but take it with a grain of salt, since his statistics are based solely on recent major championship starts. Still, Hatton has been a factor in the last three majors, and he showed plenty of fireworks at the Masters with a couple of incredible rounds. His game fits tough major championship golf perfectly, so I’d expect him to be in the mix again at Aronimink. Ranks 7th in SG: OTT.
9. Bryson DeChambeau (+1850, +350, +182)
Model rank: 17th
After a MC at the Masters and WD from LIV Mexico, DeChambeau got back on track with a 3rd last week in Virginia. It will be interesting to see how he approaches Aronimink, as I do see a path where he could be incredibly aggressive off the tee and try to overpower it, but he’ll need more precision from the wedges. Ranks 1st in SG: OTT.
8. J.J. Spaun (+9400, +1225, +560)
Model rank: 13th
Why not Spaun? The winner at Oakmont last year should feel fairly comfortable with Aronimink’s style. After struggling early in the year, he won in Texas and has logged three consecutive top 25’s in signature events, including a T5 last week at Quail Hollow. His irons have been as good as anyone in the world as of late, so look out for the World No. 8. Ranks 2nd in SG: APP.
7. Jon Rahm (+1400, +260, +134)
Model rank: 11th
Rahm quickly got over the Masters disappointment with a win in Mexico City. But I can’t help but wonder if the pressure is mounting on him. Rahm has always struggled with pressing too much, and all of these disappointments in majors as of late are undoubtedly getting to him. This will be a huge week for Rahm. Ranks 6th in SG: OTT.
6. Patrick Reed (+8200, +1075, +495)
Model rank: 9th
I’m not really sure why Reed is coming into the PGA so overlooked. He was right in the thick of it at the Masters and has played some wonderful golf all year. It could be that he hasn’t made a start since, but that doesn’t concern me much with Reed. This should be a great course for Reed, where he doesn’t have to push it too much off the tee and can let the irons and short game do the talking. Ranks 2nd in SG: ARG.
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300, +370, +180)
Model rank: 7th
Fitzpatrick finally had a rough week with a T52 at Quail Hollow. His driver uncharacteristically struggled, losing 4 strokes off the tee. That’s mildly concerning, but I’ll treat it as an outlier with so much great play as of late. He won his only major on a classical course in the northeast, so Fitzy should feel comfortable this week. Ranks 3rd in SG: ARG.
4. Ludvig Aberg (+2000, +370, +190)
Model rank: 4th
Is this the week Aberg puts it all together? He’s been so, so good as of late, but he doesn’t have the win to back it up. I absolutely love Aberg’s fit for Aronimink, as there may be nobody with a ceiling as high as his with the irons currently. Aberg can be aggressive off the tee here, and it may all come down to the putter, which has been letting him down at times in 2026. Ranks 3rd in SG: APP.
3. Rory McIlroy (+910, +186, -102)
Model rank: 2nd
Rory made his first start since the Masters win last week at Quail Hollow. It was a mixed bag, as he charged into contention for the weekend but then had a miserable Saturday to fall out of contention. He played well here in 2018 and could absolutely have a chance to tack on another major and the first half of a calendar slam. Ranks 3rd in SG: OTT.
2. Cameron Young (+1650, +305, +156)
Model rank: 3rd
Some may argue that it was better for Young not to win again leading into the PGA with back-to-back victories, but it’s preferable that he didn’t experience the Sunday that he did at Quail Hollow. He had one of the worst putting rounds of his career, but there’s so much confidence in his game right now that I can’t imagine it should bother him at Aronimink. Ranks 2nd in SG: OTT.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+385, -122, -235)
Model rank: 5thScheffler now has three consecutive solo runner-up finishes, which is a first in PGA Tour history. He’s still been hampered a bit by slow starts, but the game looks to be in top form again leading into his title defense. This type of balanced course is where I see Scheffler at his best, but I do think he’ll be even tougher to beat if conditions stay a bit more difficult. Ranks 4th in SG: ARG.
The post PGA Championship: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets appeared first on MyGolfSpy.
Article Link: https://mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/pga-championship-power-rankings-gambling-odds-and-favorite-bets/