Welcome to our new weekly power rankings segment on MGS.
For each PGA Tour tournament, we’ll rank the top 20 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads to Honolulu for the season-opening Sony Open in Hawaii.
Sony Open in Hawaii
- Date: January 15-18, 2026
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Course: Waialae Country Club
- How to watch: Golf Channel, ESPN+
- Purse: $9,100,000
- Defending champ: Nick Taylor
Which skills the course rewards
Waialae Country Club is one of the oldest and most classic designs played on Tour every year. Designed by Seth Raynor in 1927, Waialae features many of Raynor’s signature architectural elements, such as clever fairway bunker placements and raised, tricky green complexes. Waialae is a par 70 at 7,044 yards. It plays surprisingly long due to just two par 5s, flat terrain, some forced layups off the tee and typically softer conditions.
Waialae’s most similar Tour courses are Royal Birkdale, Harbour Town, Colonial, Sea Island and Port Royal.
Hitting fairways at Waialae continues to be much more helpful than most Tour venues. The past five winners have finished the week 14th, 24th, 13th, 14th and 50th in driving accuracy. That said, the rough isn’t overly penalizing. Dry conditions in Hawaii could create more firmness than we’re used to seeing here, which would create a bigger advantage from the short grass. Most of the trouble will be from big misses off the tee rather than narrow misses in the rough.
You’ll always hear that Waialae is a second-shot course, and the data backs it up. With 12 par 4s and 11 of them running between 400 and 480 yards, you get a large distribution of short-to-mid-irons this week. More than 47 percent of approaches are from 150 to 200 yards. The last five winners have finished 4th, 29th, 1st, 25th and 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week, and the last 10 winners have averaged a ranking of 13th.
There was a recent stretch when a scorching putter was the recipe for winning around here, but in recent years, it has returned to the norm. The last five winners finished 23rd, 30th, 38th, 1st and 23rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. A strong scrambler is preferred, as it has often correlated with success. No winner has finished the week worse than 34th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 10 years.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 36 rounds is 20 percent SG: Approach, 15 percent SG: Around the Green, 10 percent good drives, 10 percent greens in regulations, 10 percent SG: Putting (Bermuda), 10 percent proximity: 150-200 Yards, 10 percent par 4 birdie or better percentage, 5 percent distance from edge of fairway, 5 percent eagle percentage, and 5 percent SG: Total (Par 70).
The model informed (but doesn’t define) my choices below.
Power rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
20. William Mouw (+10000/+1500/+700)
Model rank: 19th
The winner in Kentucky last July had an up-and-down finish on the season, but this is the type of track that sets up well for Mouw. Ranks 2nd in GIR percentage.
19. Chris Kirk (+4000/+650/+320)
Model rank: 22nd
After a rough start to 2025, Kirk got hot to finish the season and should set up well at one of his favorite courses. Has three top 10s at Waialae. Ranks 11th in SG: APP.
18. Vince Whaley (+8000/+1200/+550)
Model rank: 17th
Whaley is a true short-course specialist who put in some of the best golf of his career late last season. All signs point toward Waialae being a spot for him if the driver stays in line.
17. Neal Shipley (+11000/+1700/+750)
Model rank: 13th
After a successful amateur and college career, Shipley made quick work of the Korn Ferry Tour last year. I’m expecting a strong rookie season. Ranks 10th in eagles.
16. Harry Hall (+3500/+650/+310)
Model rank: 29th
Hall had a breakout season last year, making it all the way to the Tour Championship. He finished T10 here last year and gets the majority of his work done on and around the greens. Ranks 3rd in SG: ARG.
15. Corey Conners (+3000/+550/+270)
Model rank: 34th
Perhaps Conners should be a bit higher with his course history, but he struggled in the back half of ’25 before a T4 at the Tour Championship. Finished 12th or better in four of his last six starts here.
14. Nick Taylor (+4000/+700/+340)
Model rank: 35th
The defending champion had another up-and-down season, which has become the norm for Taylor. His course history is superb, but the numbers and form aren’t as inspiring.
13. Aaron Rai (+3500/+600/+295)
Model rank: 8th
Rai has really taken a leap in his overall play, now up to 23rd in the world rankings. He grades out well for Waialae with his accuracy, but his course form is surprisingly bad in three tries. Ranks 7th in SG: APP.
12. Mac Meissner (+6500/+1000/+450)
Model rank: 2nd
Started his season here last year with a solid T21 before some struggles. But he found form late in the year and looks to be a real threat at a course like this. Ranks 3rd in GIR percentage.
11. Kurt Kitayama (+4000/+700/+350)
Model rank: 10th
Kitayama really turned it up late last year with a win at the 3M Open and plenty of good results around it. If his driving accuracy holds up, he could be a real threat at Waialae. Ranks 1st in par-4 BoB percentage.
10. Maverick McNealy (+2500/+500/+245)
Model rank: 33rd
McNealy continues to gradually improve and was ranked as high as 10th in the world last year. Plays balanced golf without any real weaknesses and finished T7 here in 2023.
9. Robert MacIntyre (+2000/+400/+200)
Model rank: 23rd
MacIntyre took a shocking leap last year to jump to 7th in the current world rankings. Most of his damage came on and around the greens, so some regression wouldn’t surprise me. Ranks 5th in SG: ARG.
8. Rico Hoey (+4500/+750/+360)
Model rank: 9th
Truly one of the world’s best ball strikers, Hoey made a move to the long putter late last year and began to see better results. If he can putt it even at field average, he should be a threat. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.
7. Nico Echavarria (+5000/+850/+400)
Model rank: 11th
Echavarria is really dangerous on courses where distance isn’t as important, and he’s as capable as anyone of catching fire with the putter. Finished 2nd here last year and 12th in 2023. Ranks 2nd in SG: Putting.
6. Ben Griffin (+1700/+330/+165)
Model rank: 3rd
World No. 8 had a spectacular rise last year, and he’s now finished 12th or better in six straight starts. If there’s one thing that holds Griffin back, it’s big misses off the tee, which could hurt this week.
5. Si Woo Kim (+2000/+400/+200)
Model rank: 4th
The 2023 champion loves his short courses, and he also excels with the short-to-mid-irons we’re looking for this week. Kim grades strongly except for the volatile putting that will likely determine his week. Ranks 3rd in SG: APP.
4. Collin Morikawa (+2000/+400/+200)
Model rank: 15th
Morikawa hasn’t played the Sony since 2021, but he finished T7 and T21 in his tw starts. This is the type of course he can really dominate, especially if he fixed some short game woes over the break. Ranks 9th in SG: APP.
3. J.J. Spaun (+1800/+360/+180)
Model rank: 7th
Now up to world No. 6, Spaun is one of the game’s most balanced players, especially on a course like this that doesn’t prioritize distance. Finished T3 here last year and T12 in 2023.
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+1700/+360/+185)
Model rank: 6th
The 2022 Sony champion seems to always be in the mix at Waialae. The irons have really popped for Matsuyama here, which makes sense when you look at his great proximity numbers from 150-200 yards.
1. Russell Henley (+1100/+230/+115)
Model rank: 1st
Henley is the top-ranked player in the field. He’s absolutely torn up Waialae since winning on his debut in 2013. He was incredibly consistent in 2025. Ranks 4th in SG: ARG.
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