For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads north to Ponte Vedra Beach for The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
This Week: The Players Championship
- Date: March 12-15, 2026
- Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
- Course: TPC Sawgrass
- How to watch: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN+, Peacock
- Purse: $25,000,000
- Defending champ: Rory McIlroy
Which skills the course rewards
TPC Sawgrass marks the third event on the Florida Swing this season.
As a Par 72 at around 7,200 yards, Sawgrass plays fairly moderately in difficulty most years, depending on the weather. The famous Pete Dye designed it in 1980 with The Players in mind and features water hazards on 14 holes, along with all the penalizing bunkers we came to know him for.
With tree-lined fairways and all the hazards lurking, Sawgrass is certainly a course that favors accuracy and a calculated approach around the course. Despite being just 7,200 yards with four Par 5s, the cutline has been under par just two times since 2003 at The Players.
Sawgrass has often been cited as not favoring any style of player… only the best player that given week. Much of that is true, as many styles have come out on top of The Stadium Course.
But there are plenty of numbers that point to improved chances of success.
Distance at Sawgrass is relatively much less important than in the average Tour event. Much of that is due to the number of forced layups Dye designed. Holes 1, 4, 6, 10 and 15 almost completely take out driver, while there are a few more that should see less than driver depending on the player.
Hitting the fairway, on the other hand, has often led to success. The rough at Sawgrass isn’t penalizing, but getting out of position for approach shots is.
Sawgrass has often been a ball striker’s paradise when looking at past winners. Simply hitting fairways and greens is a winning formula, and you don’t have to do too much on or around the greens compared to some putting contests we’ve seen.
You don’t have to be a great putter to win at The Players. That should be obvious, as guys like Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler have won here.
Much like last week at Bay Hill, you get four opportunities on Par 5s here that most players can reach in two if they keep it in the short stuff. It’s imperative that players take advantage of these chances and clean up around the greens to make birdies when they get the chance.
Finally, I’m looking at Strokes Gained on Pete Dye courses this week as well. We often see a ton of crossover success on Pete Dye-designed PGA Tour courses. Since there are so many of them, this gives us a great database on who sees all of Dye’s tricky green complexes well while striking it around his mostly narrow courses.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% SG: Approach, 15% greens in regulation percentage, 15% SG: Pete Dye, 10% good drive percentage, 10% SG: Off the Tee, 10% SG: Par 5, 10% SG: Around the Green and 10% SG: Putting (Bermuda).
Power rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Maverick McNealy (+4700, +790, +370)
Model rank: 16th
McNealy continues to be one of the most consistent players in golf, but he hasn’t produced the upside needed to contend for a title since last year at Harbour Town. He was T9 here in 2024 but surprisingly hasn’t played Pete Dye courses overly well in his career. Ranks 17th in SG: Par 5.
9. Cameron Young (+3200, +570, +280)
Model rank: 17th
After a slow start to the year, Young has it rolling now with a T7 at Riviera and a T3 last week at Bay Hill. He’s gained in each category in those finishes, which should bode well for a balanced course like TPC Sawgrass. The only thing holding Young back will be a poor history at the Sawgrass and Dye courses in general. Ranks 5th in SG: OTT.
8. Ludvig Aberg (+2800, +530, +265)
Model rank: 27th
Much like Young, Aberg is heading in the right direction as of late after a T3 at Bay Hill. The ball striking was absolutely supreme, and Aberg looked a lot like the guy we expected to be a top-3 player in the world. He finished 8th here as a debutant in 2024. Ranks 14th in SG: Par 5.
7. Tommy Fleetwood (+2500, +450, +215)
Model rank: 10th
Fleetwood ended a long stretch of top results on Tour with a 49th-place finish at Bay Hill last week. He was completely out of whack, but I have no reason to believe it will continue until it becomes more of a trend. Fleetwood has had plenty of success at Sawgrass and Dye courses. Ranks 8th in SG: ARG.
6. Daniel Berger (+5000, +810, +375)
Model rank: 6th
Berger loves his home state. He unfortunately couldn’t close out the win last week at Bay Hill due to an absurd short game week from Akshay Bhatia. But Berger has played wonderful golf at Sawgrass over the last few years and seems primed to get right back in contention. Ranks 3rd in SG: APP.
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4100, +690, +325)
Model rank: 4th
I’m still trending high on Fitzpatrick, who did finally have a poor week at Bay Hill. The positive is that his putter finally warmed up, which had been the only thing holding him back from contending for victories on the West Coast. He has a pair of top 10’s at The Players. Ranks 2nd in SG: P (Bermuda).
4. Russell Henley (+2700, +475, +230)
Model rank: 5th
Henley quickly bounced back from a rare bad week at Riviera with a quiet T6 in his title defense at Bay Hill. The irons still haven’t been great, but it’s likely only a matter of time before they click and Henley wins again. It’s shocking to me that Henley hasn’t played Sawgrass well, but maybe this is the week. Ranks 11th in SG: P (Bermuda).
3. Si Woo Kim (+2400, +435, +210)
Model rank: 8th
Kim continues to absolutely stripe the ball each week, and now he heads to the place where he shocked the world with a victory in 2017. He’s added two more top 10’s at Sawgrass and has to be feeling confident this week. If he putts well, I’d have to imagine he has a good shot at winning. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.
2. Scottie Scheffler (+435, +102, -188)
Model rank: 1st
I can’t remember the last time I wouldn’t have had Scheffler No. 1 in the Power Rankings, but here we are. The form has been concerning enough to do this, as he’s now lost shots to the field with his irons in back-to-back starts. That won’t cut it here, and he also disappointed at Sawgrass last year with a T20. Ranks 2nd in SG: OTT.
1. Collin Morikawa (+2050, +390, +192)
Model rank: 2nd
There is enough here for me to consider Morikawa as the favorite this week. Since winning at Pebble Beach, Morikawa has continued to hit his irons incredibly well. He’s also added distance off the tee and finally found some sustained success on and around the greens. He was T10 here last year. Ranks 4th in SG: APP.
The post Players Championship: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets appeared first on MyGolfSpy.
Article Link: https://mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/players-championship-power-rankings-gambling-odds-and-favorite-bets/