TROON, Scotland—At the 152nd Open Championship, the weather and the intrigue won’t quit. Friday’s brutal winds gave way to an entirely different challenge during the third round at Royal Troon. “You could smell the rain coming,” said Justin Thomas. It smelled like bogeys.
The relentless downpours came with colder temperatures and a shifting wind; according to Robert MacIntyre, “It felt like we played 16 holes straight into the wind today.” With gusts approaching 20 miles per hour, the back nine turned into a war of attrition; both Scottie Scheffler and Dustin Johnson said it was the toughest nine holes they’ve ever had to play. Shane Lowry led at -8 as late at the 7th hole but an hour later the leaders were at -5 (Lowry’s momentum died in the coffin bunker on the 8th hole). The back nine played so long that Matthew Jordan said, “I was hitting clubs from yardages that I probably did when I was like 13, 14.” He wasn’t alone. On the 501-yard par-4 15th, both Lowry and Daniel Brown went driver-driver… and neither came within 30 yards of the green. Xander Schauffele says he can hit a teed-up 3-wood over 300 yards; on the par-3 17th he had 220 to the front edge and his 3-wood expired 20 paces short.
When the round mercifully came to a close, Billy Horschel had eked out a 1-stroke lead thanks to a 69 that featured a variety of spectacular par-saves. Sunday’s forecast calls for dry skies and warmer temperatures but plenty of wind. Calling it now: the winning score will be -7. Here then, in descending order, are the best possible outcomes for what is shaping up as an unforgettable Open.
12. Thriston Lawrence shoots 67 to win
The 27 year-old from South Africa is a likable lad with an Instagram handle dedicated to his passion: @GolferGoneFishing. The 2022 Sir Henry Cotton Rookie of the Year on the Euro Tour, he has won four times on that circuit, including his own national open in ’23. But this would be by far the biggest fish he’s ever landed.
11. Sam Burns shoots 67 to win
Going out ahead of the worst wind, Burns matched Lawrence for the low round of the day with a bogey-free 65. Burns has five PGA Tour wins in the last three years but is just learning how to play his best when it matters most; his tie for 9th at last month’s U.S. Open was his first time in the mix at a major championship. The ubertalented Burns is learning to access a deeper level of grit. He began this Open playing the first 11 holes in +7 but has battled back relentlessly ever since.
10. Russell Henley shoots 67 to win
Henley, 35, has long been one of the PGA Tour’s most vexing players, as likely to go deep and steal a win as self-immolate. “It’s a mental battle over here,” he admits. But lookout, because Henley suddenly seems very at peace, saying of his third round 66, “I’m very, very happy. I don’t know how much better I could have played.” Henley organized a practice round with Ernie Els and pestered Big Easy for counsel. “I’ve really tried to take things I’ve done wrong and learn from them, and I’ve done a lot wrong,” Henley says. But once he’s on a heater he rarely cools off. The other players on the leaderboard should consider themselves forewarned.
9. Dan Brown shoots 67 to win
The big Englishman was atop the leaderboard much of the back nine until a messy bogey-double bogey finish. At 29, he has one Euro Tour win to his credit but this year has been a struggle. Without a top-60 finish since March, Brown mused on Twitter about quitting the game. He would be the Open’s biggest surprise winner since Ben Curtis in 2003, who prevailed in the first major he ever played… a feat Brown is trying to match.
8. Justin Thomas shoots 64 to win
Typical of his sketchy play over the last couple of years, Thomas has sandwiched two strong rounds around a shocker, his Friday 78 that included an outward nine of 45. The two-time major championship winner has all the shots but has been bedeviled by the big miss and a sulking, woe-is-me attitude. Speaking to the difference one day can make, he says, “You’re in a lot better place mentally. You have a lot more confidence of where the ball is going to go, of things that’s going to happen. It’s a very, very fine line in terms of the score and the actual shots that you hit. I would say it’s just more in your head and your thought process on everything is definitely different.” From 2015-2020 he won 13 times on Tour. Over the last four years Thomas has prevailed only twice. A win here would return him to the front ranks of the sport.
7. Justin Rose shoots 67 to win
This grizzled warrior turns 44 in a week and a half. He didn’t have his best stuff on Saturday but Rose fought hard to stay in contention. The 2013 U.S. Open champion has three top-6 finishes at the British Open but has never been this high on the leaderboard going into the final round. A win here would cap his career and punch his ticket to the Hall of Fame and Rose knows this might be his last shot to make history. Of the looming final round he says, “Those are days I’ve been working hard for. Those are days I’ve still been believing that I can have… It’s still my dream. In a few years it’ll be someone else’s dream. But yeah, still my dream right now. Great opportunity to go live it out tomorrow.”
Billy Horschel has a chance at his first major championship. (GETTY IMAGES/Kevin C. Cox)6. Billy Horschel shoots 68 to win
His outspoken love for English soccer team West Ham may be a performative way to curry favor with the galleries but Horschel puts his money where his mouth is when it comes to a love of links golf, turning up every year in St Andrews for the Euro Tour’s Dunhill Cup (He also supports the tour’s flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, having won it in 2021). Horschel’s ballstriking prowess has carried him to eight PGA Tour wins, plus the 2014 FedEx Cup, but he’s been a mystifying non-factor in the majors, with only two career top 10s. He blames his desultory play on getting in his own way. This time around, he’s embracing the moment. “I love it,” he said Saturday evening. “I’ve worked my entire life to be in this position. We know what this means to everyone. I know what it means to my legacy in the game of golf and what I want to do and accomplish. But I’m excited to be here. I’ve wanted to be here my entire life. I’m finally here. I’m embracing it. Something I’ve done this year is sort of manifest seeing myself holding the trophy before I go to sleep every night, envisioning myself holding that trophy on 18, walking out to the crowd and being congratulated as Open champion. That’s what I’m going to do again tonight, and hopefully that comes true tomorrow.”
5. Xander Schauffele shoots 67 to win
Given that Valhalla is a mediocre course and the setup for this year’s PGA Championship was so laughably easy that it felt like the Greater Louisville Open, Schauffele will try to win his first real major championship on Open Sunday. His 69 was one of the stoutest rounds during the worst of the weather on Saturday afternoon. Having won one major* already this year, Schauffele is playing with an uncommon freedom at Royal Troon. He definitely leads the field in strokes gained: attitude. “I’m lucky,” he said Saturday evening. “I love playing golf, and I love my job, and I love playing over here. For me it’s all fun, and I just try to have as much fun as possible even on a day like today.”
4. Scottie Scheffler shoots 66 to win
The sweet-swinging Masters champ is having a monster year but a second major championship victory would make it a season for the ages. He struck the ball beautifully, per usual: his kick-in birdie on the par-3 17th with a slicing 3-wood was the shot of the day. But Scheffler was putrid with the putter and will have to make significant progress on Sunday to summit a packed leaderboard. “It can be frustrating,” he says, “but I felt like today was another one of those days where I just did a really good job of not getting overly frustrated, staying in a good head space and did a good job of really staying in the tournament.”
3. Shane Lowry shoots 65 to win
Playing the 5th hole, Lowry was cruising with a 3-shot lead. As he settled in for his sandy second shot on the par-3 8th, fellow Irishman Padraig Harrington was addressing reporters with one eye on a TV. When Lowry’s shot trickled over the back of the green Harrington twisted his face in anguish and said softly, “Oh, dear.” Indeed, Lowry never recovered, playing the final 10 holes in a ghastly +7. He was steaming after the round but defiantly insisted he can still win. Harrington cautioned against counting out the 2019 Open champion: “Shane likes to be on the leaderboard at the big events. The bigger the moment the better he plays.” That wasn’t the case on Saturday but Lowry has one more round to flip the script.
2. Dustin Johnson shoots 62 to win
DJ has become the primary example of those who believe that the easy money, short fields and lack of a cut on LIV Golf will dull a player’s competitive instincts: even as Johnson has won three times on LIV he has laid a series of eggs in the majors, including missing the cut in three of the previous four. But he has grinded out three solid rounds to give himself an outside shot at nabbing the third leg of a career Grand Slam. Johnson never lacks for perspective, sounding more excited about joining his sexpot wife for a holiday after the Open. Paulina is currently bronzing herself in St. Tropez, a slightly more hospitable climate than Troon. “She’s laughing at me, probably,” he said.
1. Adam Scott shoots 63 to win
On Friday, Scott had to play the last six holes 1-under to make the cut, what he called “a matter of pride.” Amidst a lot of talk that modern pros are unwilling to alter their bomb-and-gouge style of play just to prosper at the Open, Scott said, “I would change everything just to win this once.” Much of that emotion goes back to the 2012 Open, when Scott bogeyed the final four holes to hand the Claret Jug to Ernie Els. Scott, 44, shot a stylish 66 on Saturday to give himself one more shot at redemption (he has five top 10s at the Open but none since 2015). “You only get so many chances at it,” he says wistfully. A Scott win would be hugely popular in the locker room, press room and caddie yard, to say nothing of the adoring crowds. Can he get it done? That’s just one of many intriguing subplots for what is shaping up as the most exciting Sunday of the year.
Top Photo Caption: Shane Lowry will be looking for redemption after a lackluster Saturday. (GETTY IMAGES/Kevin C. Cox)
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