After another scintillating day at Le National, the “creme” has risen to the top at the Olympic golf competition. The hottest golfer on the planet, reigning gold medalist Xander Schauffele, is atop the leaderboard at -14. Tied with him is Jon Rahm, Masters and U.S. Open champion. One shot back is Tommy Fleetwood, the star of the 2018 Ryder Cup here at Le Golf National. Tied for fourth at -11 is Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama and one of the game’s brightest young talents, Nicolai Hjøgaard, who during Saturday’s third round matched the course record with a 62. One stroke further afield is the heavyweight duo of Rory McIlroy and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.
In all, 13 players are within five strokes of the bronze medal, promising plenty of fireworks in front of a crowd that has been at full-throat all week, cheering on their countrymen but also reveling in the feeling that golf has finally been embraced by the Olympics and vice versa. “I think it’s a little more fun than a major,” McIlroy said of the raucous atmosphere. “Sort of like a celebration in a way.”
Now comes the hard part. The final round brings unique pressure with each competitor feeling the weight of their countrymen and the uniqueness of contending in the planet’s biggest athletic spectacle which comes around once every four years. Jason Day has talked often this week about the waves of emotion that come with representing Australia. “It’s definitely reconnected myself with why I play the game and why I love the game so much,” he says.
With all of this feeling and pressure as the backdrop, here are the most compelling possible outcomes for what has already been a memorable Olympic golf competition.
7. Gold: Tommy Fleetwood—Silver: Hideki Matsuyama—Bronze: Victor Perez
There is no more beloved figure in golf than Tommy Lad. His seven European Tour wins are nothing to sneeze at but Fleetwood, 33, is still seeking a defining victory. Matsuyama has failed to build on his 2021 Masters victory but a medal of any color would be a big deal in golf-mad Japan. Perez, the Frenchman who struck the first competitive golf shot of these Games, is in 13th place, six strokes behind the leaders. The crowd has carried him along all week. If he makes a run up the leaderboard on Sunday, it will be the most pandemonium France has seen since the Bastille fell.
6. Gold: Ludvig Aberg—Silver: Nicolai Højgaard—Bronze: Tom Kim
A podium sweep by these young studs would be something to celebrate. Aberg (T10, -9) was inspired by his fellow Swede Henrik Stenson’s silver medal in 2016. The most hyped young player in years, he stumbled at this year’s major championships but a medal would put an exclamation point on his development. Kim (T6, -10) has the immense pressure of trying to play his way out of Korea’s compulsory military service, which only an Olympic medal can do. (A gold at the Asian Games brings the same exemption but there is talk that the AG may revert back to amateurs only.) If Kim, a three-time winner on the PGA Tour at 22, can reach the podium, it will become a crossover story that brings wide attention to his talent and bubbly charm.
5. Gold: Jason Day—Silver: Ludvig Aberg—Bronze: Rory McIlroy
Day, 36, has enjoyed a very productive career but never quite lived up to the massive expectations he created in 2015-2016 when he won eight tournaments including the PGA Championship. A gold medal would be a brilliant reward for the perseverance he has displayed through many injuries. McIlroy continues to confound with his decade-long drought in the majors but, with apologies to Bryson DeChambeau, he is still the game’s biggest star. An Olympic medal would help salvage a lost year and bring more juice to Olympic golf.
4. Gold: Scottie Scheffler—Silver: Victor Perez—Bronze: Tom Kim
Scratchy play at both the U.S. and British Opens have taken a little shine off of Scheffler’s monster season. If he can cop the gold medal, it makes the Player of the Year race a dead heat between him and Xander Schauffele, adding needed intrigue to the upcoming FedEx Cup.
3. Gold: Xander Schauffele—Silver: Scottie Scheffler—Bronze: Rory McIlroy
Two major championship victories in one season is epic. If Schauffele wins gold, his 2024 campaign becomes a historic triumph. Back-to-back golds would also establish him as one of the keynote athletes heading into the 2028 Olympics in his native California.
2. Gold: Jon Rahm—Silver: Scottie Scheffler—Bronze: Victor Perez
It’s been a lost season for Rahm after his stunning jump to LIV Golf—a gold medal would return him to the front ranks of the sport, where he belongs. It would also be a boon to LIV as it continues its evolution into golf’s most international tour. Other than DeChambeau (who should have been in Paris but fell victim to an outdated qualifying criteria that relied solely on the compromised World Ranking), LIV golfers were a collective disappointment in the major championships. Rahm winning gold dramatically changes the narrative.
1. Gold: Rory McIlroy—Silver: Victor Perez—Bronze: Tom Kim
Nothing would be more Rory-esque than him floundering in the majors but then taking gold. It would lift a heavy personal burden after his collapse at this year’s U.S. Open but also lead to further fascinating political discourse, as this native of Northern Ireland is wearing the lovely green of the Republic of Ireland for these Games. Initially a doubter of Olympic golf, McIlroy has now become an evangelist. “Just like I’ve done a lot of times in my career because I’m ignorant and naïve and don’t give things much thought,” he said on the eve of the final round. “But once you experience things, you start to see what the hype is about.” A McIlroy breakthrough is all the hype these Games can hope for but there are plenty of other intriguing outcomes in play.
Buckle up.
Top Photo Caption: Rory McIlroy has a chance to redeem himself on Sunday in France. (GETTY IMAGES/Andrew Redington)
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