We’ve reached the third major of the year.
There will be no surprises in terms of difficulty this week at Oakmont. The course is an absolute brute—among the toughest in the country—and a winning score of even par or worse is a possibility, although modern technology tends to make U.S. Open massacres a little less bloody.
The rough? It’s at least five inches thick.
The greens? They are running above 14 on the Stimpmeter.
The bunkers? They can be nasty, especially if your ball kneels for a prayer in the church pews.
And the par-3s? They are long, with one of them asking players to hit lumber (at 293 yards, that is understandable).
It’s championship golf at a championship venue with a championship pedigree. The last seven Open winners at Oakmont: Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan, Johnny Miller, Dustin Johnson, Ernie Els, Larry Nelson and Angel Cabrera.
Hitters only, as the kids would say.
As if anyone needs more reason to believe that this week’s winner will be a golfer among the game’s elite, recent major championship golf has been trending hard in that same direction.
The last six major winners have been Scottie Scheffler (twice), Xander Schauffele (twice), Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau.
We’re not exactly seeing Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton pulling off major Ws (no offense).
When was the last truly shocking major victor? Phil Mickelson at the 2021 PGA, perhaps—but he is a Hall of Famer. Even going back a decade, it’s hard to find someone randomly popping up to a win a major. The best answer is probably Gary Woodland, but the list is light.
What’s the point?
The majors belong to the game’s best. Forget trying to bet a longshot winner. I would even forget trying to bet a longshot for the top five or 10. You are almost definitely wasting your money.
You will want to look at the top 20 names on the board. And, honestly, that might be too wide of a window. The winner is probably among the top five names on the board.
Odds to win the U.S. Open
Let’s start with the odds sheet. I’ve limited it to the top 20 names on the sheet. These numbers are courtesy of ESPN Bet and are subject to change.
- Scottie Scheffler +275
- Bryson DeChambeau +650
- Rory McIlroy +950
- Jon Rahm +1200
- Xander Schauffele +2000
- Ludvig Aberg +2200
- Collin Morikawa +2500
- Joaquin Niemann +2800
- Shane Lowry +3300
- Tommy Fleetwood +3500
- Sepp Straka +4000
- Justin Thomas +4000
- Patrick Cantlay +4000
- Viktor Hovland +5000
- Brooks Koepka +6000
- Jordan Spieth +6600
- Tyrrell Hatton +6600
- Ben Griffin +7000
- Hideki Matsuyama +7000
- Sam Burns +7000
What to look for when betting
The biggest key for betting the U.S. Open is to identify a long driver of the ball.
You will remember that DJ won at Oakmont in 2016 by crushing driver. Nine years before him, Cabrera led the field in driving distance en route to victory.
This is not specific to Oakmont. The U.S. Open has become a bomber’s paradise with DeChambeau (twice), Wyndham Clark and Jon Rahm among the recent victors.
There are virtually no trees in play at Oakmont and the fairways are so narrow that even accurate drivers of the ball are going to miss a decent number of them. That means the bombers aren’t losing that much when they miss fairways—they are 30-plus yards closer to the hole and not hurting much from a couple of more missed fairways compared to others.
If you are going to be in the rough, you might as well be closer to the hole.
Obviously, it takes more than power to win a U.S. Open. DeChambeau led the field in putting when he won at Winged Foot in 2020. It will take similar brilliance around the greens to get it done this week.
The point is that this isn’t the week to pick a shorter hitter. The combination of Oakmont history, U.S. Open history and recent major championship history is begging for a long hitter here.
Players to fade this week
Before I get into the top players to bet on this week, let’s take a look at a few players that I would avoid.
- Brooks Koepka — I think you have to avoid Koepka after he missed the first two major cuts of the year coming off of a listless 2024 major season. His U.S. Open record is spectacular but he also hasn’t contended in one since 2021. There is no reason to go chasing here.
- Cameron Smith — Smith has yet to contend for a major in his 10 starts since leaving for LIV including missed cuts at the Masters and PGA this year. His U.S. Open record is just OK and he is a relatively short hitter.
- Viktor Hovland — Hovland has struggled in the U.S. Open with his last four starts being CUT-19-CUT-WD. I also don’t think you can fully trust him as he has just one top-10 finish in 12 starts this year (a win at the Valspar).
- Xander Schauffele — Although he’s a U.S. Open gamer, Schauffele has just been too unreliable in 2025 coming off the rib injury. It’s hard to time exactly when he’ll snap back into form. Looking at him for a top 10 or top 20 bet is reasonable but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
- Justin Thomas — I’ve been on the JT hype train since the beginning of the year and he has rewarded me with strong play (up to No. 5 in Data Golf). The only issue is that he has been bad at recent U.S. Opens and his driver is well below Tour average for accuracy. He doesn’t have the power to offset that. I’ll pass this week.
- Sungjae Im — He is an analytics darling but Im is not a good play this week. He’s below average in driving distance and has an awful U.S. Open record, having missed his last three cuts in the tourney.
- Jordan Spieth — Spieth has quietly played well in 2025 and is up to No. 22 in Data Golf after being well outside the top 100 earlier in the year. I would wait on him until the Open Championship, however, because a course like Oakmont doesn’t fit his skillset. Spieth is slightly above Tour average in the major Strokes Gained categories but not enough to be in the game’s elite.
Players to back this week
These are the guys who are most likely to be in contention:
- Bryson DeChambeau — This is the simplest pick on the board. DeChambeau’s game is perfect for a U.S. Open like this given his length. And he is coming off a pair of top-five finishes at the first two majors of the year.
- Scottie Scheffler — Does anything else need to be said? Betting on him at +275 or thereabouts is kind of a crime because those odds are tough to swallow for a player who has never won a U.S. Open and didn’t contend at Pinehurst last year. Still, he’s Scottie Scheffler. If he’s in the mix, he will probably win.
- Rory McIlroy — There are serious questions about whether McIlroy is mentally ready to contend at another major after the cathartic release of winning the Masters in April. He has been in the news for equipment reasons recently (although it’s much ado about nothing) and then missed the cut by 12 strokes at the RBC Canadian Open last week. However, he has six consecutive top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open. How can you overlook that?
- Jon Rahm — I know Rahm has struggled in majors since the switch to LIV, but it does feel like he’s getting close to being back in the right head space and form to contend again. He loves U.S. Opens as he’s been in the top 15 four of the past five he’s played. He is born to play this tournament with how long and straight he drives it.
- Ludvig Aberg — A clear tier below the four others on this list, Aberg has a high ceiling and the driving ability to be a factor. We’ve only seen him at one U.S. Open (T12) and there wasn’t thick rough there. He won at Torrey Pines this year, which has some overlap with which skills are valued. Aberg is inconsistent but this seems like a good spot for him with how phenomenal he is off the tee.
Five interesting prop bets
Here are a few intriguing props you might want to look to this week.
- DeChambeau for a top-five finish (+175) — DeChambeau will almost definitely be in contention based on his outstanding U.S. Open record and the fact he has been playing superbly in majors the past two years. These are nice odds.
- McIlroy for a top-10 finish (+130) — As mentioned, McIlroy has been a nearly automatic top 10 at this tournament since prior to the pandemic. Don’t be too scared by his PGA Championship and Canadian Open performances. For plus odds, it’s worth a shot.
- Joaquin Niemann for a top-20 finish (+135) — I know, I know … Niemann has an atrocious major record. In 24 starts, he only has one top-10 finish which just came last month at the PGA. However, Niemann is sneaky long off the tee and is coming off a win at LIV Virginia. We’re only looking for a top 20 here which seems reasonable.
- No holes-in-one during the week (-160) — Oakmont has a brutally difficult (and lengthy) set of par-3s. I’m not feeling an ace in Pittsburgh this week.
- Min Woo Lee as top Australian (+400) — I’m a sucker for a good nationality bet and I think this is a good spot to back “the Chef” at Oakmont. Lee is the longest hitter among his Aussie competition and he has never finished outside the top 30 in his three U.S. Open starts.
Enjoy the tourney and happy gambling. Who are you backing? Let me know in the comments.
Top Photo Caption: Bryson DeChambeau is a top favorite this week at Oakmont. (Photo by Jon Ferrey/LIV Golf)
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