Three Holes that Will Decide Who Wins Gold at the Olympic Games

With the Olympic Games taking place in August, we asked the team at Shot Scope to pull on-course data from their database of 350 million shots for Le Golf National, the venue for golf at the Games, to see how the amateur golfer plays the course.

Le Golf National is no stranger to hosting the biggest events in golf with the 2018 Ryder Cup taking place on the Albatross Course, where Team Europe were crowned victorious. The less said about that the better.

Ryder Cup 2018 – Grand Stand” by Cutkiller2018 is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. To view a copy of this license, visit Deed - Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International - Creative Commons.

The French Open has been held at Le Golf National since 1991, on and off, but has been held at the venue every year since 2002, so we can also compare how the Pros play the course with amateurs.

Three holes that will cause drama – 4, 17, and 18.

Despite many of the holes having some form of water feature, one of the hardest playing holes on the Albatross course does not have any.

Instead, the fourth hole, is a long par 4, measuring at 486yds in the French Open, and playing 0.17 strokes over par, making it the fourth hardest hole of the week, in 2023.

For the amateur golfer, despite the tee shot being somewhat narrow, finding the short stuff does not present too many issues with an average FIR% of 57%. However, the second shot is where the real trouble begins as the green is protected by several bunkers and undulations – resulting in just an 11% GIR (green in regulation).

Upon missing the green, there are of course, better places to miss than others. From the fairway, players have a 22% chance of getting up and down – between a 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 chance. From the rough, golfers have a 1 in 4 chance roughly of converting their up and down (26%). From the database, those with the misfortune of finding the sand have almost all failed to get up and down with less than 1% of golfers converting from the sand – amateur golfers that is.

Once safely onboard the green players typically get down in two although depending on where the pin is located in relation to your ball there is some undulation to navigate so it is by no means an easy two putt. In, fact if you get down in two you should be happy really.

There are lots of difficult holes between the 4th and 17th, but with the last two holes being some of the hardest, it seems fitting to see what a gold medalist will have to tackle as they close in on the podium. Let’s look at the 17th.

No. 17

The seventeenth hole at Le Golf National is another long par 4, measuring 480yds in the French open, playing 0.16 strokes over par making it the fifth hardest hole of the week, in 2023.

Surprisingly, the hole features no water, and no bunkers.

Why is it so difficult?

The tee shot is by no means easy with a narrow fairway to try and find, players find the short stuff 44% of the time making it one of the harder fairways to find. Should you avoid the rough off the tee you can still be punished with an awkward lie with mounds peppered along the fairway and rough.

A combination of the long second shot many players will face as well as the potential awkward lies and runoff areas that protect the fairly small green and the GIR% is incredibly low at 7% making it the hardest green on the course to hit.

Upon missing the green, players typically fail to get up and down 82% of the time which emphasizes just how difficult this hole is from start to finish for the amateur golfer. 

Players typically take two putts on the 17th, and so, with that information and all that has come before, it will come as no surprise that the average score is well above par at +1.33 for the amateur golfer.

At last year’s French Open the field recorded 75 bogeys and 11 doubles or worse. It’s tough for the pros too!

No. 18

Lastly, the 18th, the closing hole where three players will cement their place in history as an Olympic medallist, what will they face? The hardest hole on the course!

Playing 471yds and with a scoring average 0.47 over par at last year’s French Open, the field recorded 106 bogeys and 53 doubles or worse. For our Olympians, it isn’t over until it’s over as shots are easily dropped here.

For the amateur golfer, the hole plays an incredible 1.37 strokes over par, when played as a par 4, the highest of any hole on the course.

If you have a tendency to miss left, then be sure to get your drop technique perfected as water runs adjacent to the fairway up the entire left side and protects the front of the green.

Depending on the tee box you choose to play from (let’s use the whites for the example), a 260 yard drive will leave you with roughly 190 yads for the second shot which is entirely over water. There is always the option to layup and try to put a wedge close (the hole can be a par 5 depending on tee selection).

The dataset for the amateur golfers in this blog is based on a 14.6 index golfer and so from this distance, their likelihood of hitting the green is 11%, basically, there’s a 90% chance they put it in the water and a 100% chance of a bad time.

Shot Scope GPS watches give players distances to the front and carry of every hazard helping golfers pick the correct club with confidence every time.

If going for the green, the best miss is left as there is nowhere to go right unless you miss mega right and then have to play over the water. In terms of getting up and down, across all lie types, players have a 1 in 4 chance.

The average number of putts taken is slightly lower on 18 at 1.89, potentially as a result of players laying up and hitting a wedge on. By laying up players would likely have a closer first putt than when they go for it in two, making it easier to get down in two.

Shot Scope performance tracking users can apply their on course data to the Albatross Course at Le Golf National and see exactly how they would perform at the Olympic Games venue. 

With various methods of performance tracking to choose from including GPS watches, a laser rangefinder, and mobile enabled tracking tags, there is an option to suit every golfer – start tracking now and save 4.1 strokes with Shot Scope. 

Who do you think will take the gold in Paris?

Professional data taken from europeantour.com/dpworld-tour

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