For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads west to Tampa for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook.
This Week: Valspar Championship
- Date: March 19-22, 2026
- Location: Palm Harbor, Florida
- Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
- How to watch: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN+, Peacock
- Purse: $9,100,000
- Defending champ: Viktor Hovland
Which skills the course rewards
The Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort is one of the hardest courses annually on the Tour and tends to produce a strong winner who is on top of his ball striking.
This isn’t a course that looks anything like the other Florida courses we see each season due to the characteristics of the Tampa Bay area. The tree-lined fairways and elevation changes look more like something you’d see farther north toward Georgia or the Carolinas.
Innisbrook has hosted this event since 2000 under a variety of names. It runs as a Par 71 at more than 7,300 yards with Bermuda greens. It’s not a normal Par 71, either, with five Par 3s and four Par 5s.
With all the doglegs and forced layups, Innisbrook can play quite long by demanding plenty of mid or long irons into Par 4s—and especially the long Par 3s.
The most important skill to focus on this week is undeniably approach play. Innisbrook is a second-shot course and has tiny greens and tricky complexes that force the second-most misses from inside five feet on the Tour.
Just looking at recent winners like Viktor Hovland, Paul Casey, Adam Hadwin, Jordan Spieth, Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald and Jim Furyk shows that there isn’t a lot of power demanded off the tee.
Instead, it requires elite irons.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Approach, 20% good drive percentage, 15% SG: Putting (Bermuda). 10% SG: Around the Green, 10% greens in regulation percentage, 10% SG: Par 5 and 10% Par 4: 401-450 Yards.
Power rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Jordan Spieth (+2500, +490, +245)
Model rank: 21st
Things seem to be going in the right direction for Spieth, who finished 11th at Bay Hill and 32nd at Sawgrass. The driver remains a major issue, but his irons were fantastic last week. He won here in 2015 and added a T3 a few years ago. If he can dial in the accuracy, Spieth should be a factor. Ranks 24th in SG: P (Bermuda).
9. Justin Thomas (+2250, +465, +240)
Model rank: 120th
Don’t mind the model rank. Thomas was an absolute disaster in his first start back at Bay Hill, which is going to really bog down his stats for a while. But he quickly bounced back, finishing T8 last week at Sawgrass with some elite iron play and his usual strong work around the greens. Thomas has four top 10’s at Innisbrook in eight tries, including a runner-up last year. Ranks 1st in SG: ARG.
8. Austin Smotherman (+5600, +920, +435)
Model rank: 17th
No worries with Smotherman’s WD at Bay Hill. He finished T13 at Sawgrass, a strong result for a player clearly in high form right now. He also has a couple of solid results at Innisbrook. Smotherman’s ball striking is legitimately some of the best in the world right now. Ranks 2nd in SG: APP.
7. Brooks Koepka (+2600, +520, +265)
Model rank: 32nd
After a couple of poor results for Koepka in his return to the Tour, Florida seems to have gotten him right. A T9 at PGA National and a T13 at Sawgrass showcased some fantastic ball striking for the former world No. 1, and it seems like a hot week with the putter could get him right in contention again. He played here once in 2022 and finished T12. Ranks 5th in SG: APP.
6. Ryo Hisatsune (+4200, +720, +345)
Model rank: 7th
Hisatsune’s putter has gone cold again, but he’s still logging some great results after a T13 at Sawgrass last week. The ball striking has been as strong and consistent as anyone in golf in 2026, and it really does feel like a breakthrough win is coming very soon. He contended here last year with a T4. Ranks 8th in SG: APP.
5. Viktor Hovland (+1900, +380, +194)
Model rank: 10th
The defending champion has a pair of T13 finishes in his last two starts at Bay Hill and Sawgrass, but the driver is still a legitimate concern. He’s lost a significant amount of shots off the tee in four of his last five starts, but he also won here last year despite fighting his swing off the tee. It still feels like he’s not there yet. Ranks 10th in SG: APP.
4. Jacob Bridgeman (+2250, +435, +215)
Model rank: 11th
Last year’s tournament was many people’s introduction to Bridgeman, who had a great chance to win on Sunday before finishing 3rd. He pushed all the way to the Tour Championship, and he’s now ascended to a new level as of late after winning at Riviera and finishing T5 last week at Sawgrass. Bridgeman now leads the FedExCup and should be a favorite this week. Ranks 20th in SG: APP.
3. Xander Schauffele (+1050, +230, +122)
Model rank: 6th
Schauffele has slowly found his game throughout the start of this year, and his play at Sawgrass finally felt like the Schauffele of old. He has a balance throughout the bag that very few players can match, and that should make him a threat again this week at one of the toughest courses on Tour. He’s finished T12, T5 and T12 here in three tries. Ranks 14th in SG: APP.
2. Akshay Bhatia (+1950, +390, +200)
Model rank: 3rd
Bhatia quietly followed up his win at Bay Hill with a solid T13 at Sawgrass despite really struggling around the greens. His iron play has been absurdly good since Phoenix, which is why he’s been a factor in every start he’s made. The driver also bounced back last week after the struggles at Bay Hill. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.
1. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1450, +300, +156)
Model rank: 1st
It was a heartbreaking defeat for Fitzpatrick at Sawgrass, as he held a one-shot lead going to the 17th hole before Cameron Young put on quite the display to win by a shot. Fitzpatrick has been trending well all year, which is why he’s been a mainstay on these power rankings. A win feels like it should be coming at any point. He finished T5 here in 2022. Ranks 1st in SG: P (Bermuda) and SG: Par 5.
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