You would guess that the majority of the past 10 champion golfers would still be a threat when it comes around to this year’s Open Championship but you could easily strike a line through nearly half of their chances.
In the past decade, we’ve seen a new circuit disrupt the men’s professional game and one champion heading that way just a few months after his Open success.
With the 2020 not taking place due to Covid, we have Rory McIlroy in there from 2014 and he’s back on home soil where all eyes will be on his opening tee shot to avoid what happened back in 2019.
1. 2024 Xander Schauffele – 69-72-69-65 (-9) – Royal Troon
It hasn’t been too long but Schauffele’s last two wins have come in the Majors. In May last year, he pipped Bryson DeChambeau, then he went bogey-free on the Sunday at Troon to quickly double his tally.
Part of that success came on the Saturday when he shot 69 in foul conditions when the scoring average for the final 12 groupings was just a shade under 74. Injury got in the way of the start of his 2025 season as he missed two months but, while he’s yet to threaten a third big one, he’s made every weekend this term.
You’d likely guess that he’ll find his top form later in the year, the only problem being that the Majors will already have finished.
2. 2023 Brian Harman – 67-65-69-70 (-13) – Royal Liverpool
The American remains comfortably inside the world’s top 30 and in with a very strong chance of a second Ryder Cup appearance later this year.
There has been another win this year in Texas, and he would seem a great outside bet for Portrush with the lack of rain this year. Then again, it tipped it down in Liverpool (where he was a 125-1 shot) and he won by six.
It still feels like we don’t know much more about Harman these days, other than his love of hunting, so here’s a little tidbit: golf is the only thing that he does left-handed. He is one of three lefties to lift the Claret Jug.
3. 2022 Cam Smith – 67-64-73-64 (-20) – St Andrews
The Aussie comes to Northern Ireland with missed cuts in his last four Majors and he appears a different beast to the one who won with that closing 64 around the Old Course.
It would be silly to knock his form too much; he has three wins on the LIV circuit and plenty of top 10s this year (so what, you cry?), but he’s still sitting well down their standings.
The easy argument would be to suggest that he’s lost his appetite and cutting edge, a more reasoned one would be that he’ll work it all out soon enough and begin threatening in the big ones pretty soon.
4. 2021 Collin Morikawa – 67-64-68-66 (-15) – Royal St George’s
Morikawa only turned 28 earlier this year, so is even younger than Scottie Scheffler.
The last time The Open was played at Portrush, Morikawa had only just turned pro Now, now he has two Majors and a collection of top 10s.
He certainly should have won more. Bay Hill this year was a good example of that, but there are certainly not too many alarm bells.
The standard these days, right at the top of the game, is frightening and Morikawa is part of that conversation. His victory at Sandwich was memorable for a couple of incredible up-and-downs on the Sunday and he wouldn’t drop a shot for the last 31 holes.
5. 2019 Shane Lowry – 67-67-63-72 (-15) – Royal Portrush
Lowry is yet to break into the world’s top 10 but you wouldn’t bet against that happening by the end of 2025.
Last year, he led by two going into the weekend at Troon and then came with a run on the front nine on Sunday but the wait for a second Major goes on.
This seems to be the most consistent form that the Irishman has produced and his all-round game has moved to new levels but everything still points to that memorable week over the Dunluce Links in 2019. The 63 on Saturday needs to be talked about more, as does the winning margin of six shots. An absolute masterclass.
6. 2018 Francesco Molinari – 70-72-65-69 (-8) – Carnoustie
For a time, Molinari was fairly unstoppable – there was the weekend heroics at Carnoustie and then those five points in Paris – and he might well have added a Green Jacket the following year when ‘You Know Who’ made it 15 Major wins as the Italian twice found the water on the back nine.
At the beginning of the pandemic, the Molinaris moved to Los Angeles and his game has sadly gone south. The 42-year-old will be at Portrush but his other Major exemptions have now expired and his name rarely appears on the leaderboard these days.
7. 2017 Jordan Spieth – 65-69-65-69 (-12) – Royal Birkdale
Despite a recent withdrawal, Spieth’s injury problems seem to be beyond him and he may well be a good bet for Portrush. His Open record is underplayed, though the whole make-up of his game lends itself to something special on the links.
St George’s in 2021 will likely always niggle, given what he was able to produce in spells down in Kent, and he could easily have had a hat-trick of Claret Jugs by now. It’s always worth emphasising Spieth’s age – he is still only 31.
The Spieths are expecting their third child any time now, so we might well have another nappy factor champion.
8. 2016 Henrik Stenson – 68-65-68-63 (-20) – Royal Troon
The beauty of The Open returning to Troon last year was that it reminded us of quite how brilliant Stenson’s win there was.
Xander Schauffele would win on -9, going back to 2016 Phil Mickelson was three back of the Swede on -17. Hopefully, we’ll all rightly remember this Open as one of the two greatest duels in the modern era.
Not that it means anything but the 49-year-old is now outside the top 1500 players in the world following his 2022 switch to LIV Golf, where these days he resides as a co-captain of the Mavericks with Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter.
There has been one victory, early on with his new employers in New Jersey, but little else to shout about.
9. 2015 Zach Johnson – 66-71-70-66 (-15) – St Andrews
Fun fact – Johnson’s play-off win over the Old Course, when Jordan Spieth was threatening a Grand Slam, was his last on the PGA Tour. Next year, he will be eligible for the seniors though he remains eligible for the Signature Events this year.
In the interim, he has been a losing Ryder Cup captain, where he and his players were outgunned in Rome two years ago, and he rolled back the years at Augusta this year with a top 10.
He is now down in 185th spot in the world, a similar ranking to his driving distance on tour these days, but the putter’s still working so watch out everyone on the PGA Tour Champions.
10. 2014 Rory McIlroy – 66-66-68-71 (-17) – Royal Liverpool
With the non-playing of the 2020 Open McIlroy sneaks into this list and prompts the question that it is now 11 years since he won his single Claret Jug.
When he won the Silver Medal (low amateur) in 2007 at Carnoustie you would have imagined plenty of Jugs but he only has the wire-to-wire victory at Royal Liverpool on the CV.
Our minds immediately flash to St Andrews in 2022 when he was overrun by Cam Smith’s brilliance while Carnoustie in 2018 is his actual next-best finish.
And now back to Royal Portrush where he endured that nightmare opening and subsequent recovery on Friday to so nearly make the cut. Now he’s a Masters champ and the World No. 2 and, should he prevail on home soil, it might even top what went on at Augusta.
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