The PGA Tour is four tournaments deep into the new season and this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the first of its high-profile Signature Events.
There are eight of them this season and, with increased prize money ($20 million) and FedEx Cup points (700) on offer at each of them, the results go a long way towards determining who will qualify for the Playoffs and ultimately win the FedEx Cup.
Two courses host this week with the field playing one round at both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill before the weekend, and then another two rounds at Pebble on the weekend.
The challenge is distinct because the two spectacular Californian courses boast stunning views, blustery winds, small greens and tricky Poa Annua putting surfaces.
Who will thrive? And who will struggle? Let’s take a look.
The World No. 1
Scottie Scheffler has in won seven (yes, seven) of his last 14 tour starts (and never finished worse than T8) so it’s safe to say that he needs to be considered but are these conditions his Kryptonite?
He missed the cut at Pebble in the 2019 US Open before finishing T6 and T9 in his two starts at this event. He also has four top 10s in 11 starts at Torrey Pines and Riviera (two other Californian tracks with Poa Annua greens). That’s a fine record by normal standards but with no win is down on his current norms.
He did land victory in last Fall’s Procore Championship on Californian Poa at Silverado, but that had a weaker field than this week’s.
It’s not his ideal test but Scheffler on this current tear will be a threat anywhere.
Winner
If not Scheffler, then who? Defending champion Rory McIlroy struggled to T33 on one of his favourite courses (the Majlis at Emirates GC) in last month’s Dubai Desert Classic. It was his first failure to finish top 10 there in 13 starts so we’ll look elsewhere.
And Maverick McNealy looks the man.
He was second in this event in 2021 and fifth in 2020. He’s also been second and T10 at Torrey Pines, second at Silverado and seventh at Riviera.
That’s solid form in the right conditions – and he was a promising T13 last week in the Phoenix Open.
Next Best
Can Shane Lowry bounce back from throwing away victory in his opening start of the year in Dubai?
He was third that week, his fourth top three finish without a win in the last 12 months and the first of them came when he was second in this event last year.
He’s a good performer playing into small greens and the 2019 Open champion will not be fazed if the wind blows.
Outsider
The South African Garrick Higgo has only played at Pebble once, but it was a promising effort with three sub-70 scores helping him to T20.
He claimed a second PGA Tour win last year on another coastal course in the Dominican Republic and it wasn’t his first because he won twice on undulating layouts overlooking the seas in the Canary Islands.
Top 10 Finishers
Jason Day is a monster at Pebble. He’s played the course 16 times and nine of them reaped top 10s – an astounding record of quality and consistency.
He started 2026 with second place at The American Express so he looks set for another good week at the AT&T.
First Round Leader
Full of confidence after winning the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago, Justin Rose will be delighted about his return to another stretch of the Pacific Ocean.
Seven career starts at Pebble (including one US Open) have reaped five finishes of T12 or better including victory in this tournament in 2023.
He also likes a fast start. He was the solo first round leader of the 2019 US Open with a 65 and the same Thursday score had him second last year. He’s also been T6 and T8 after 18 holes.
Likely to Struggle
The PGA Tour’s Signature Events don’t have a cut, but who could struggle this week?
It’s a valid question given that trifecta of California, coastal locations and Poa Annua grass on the greens because, just as some golfers can cope with those three factors, others really cannot.
Take Tommy Fleetwood. He’s played at Pebble four times and he’s still looking for a first top 20 and in his last three visits he has a best Putting rank of 59th.
His compatriot Harry Hall is another example. He’s one of the PGA tour’s finest putters but not, it seems, on Californian Poa Annua. In eight starts on it he has a best finish of just T34 in the 2023 edition of this event – and it was his only top 40.
Canada’s Corey Conners is a tee to green machine but his Pebble Beach record reads MC-MC-T31-T65. He’s always lost strokes to the field with the putter and ranked 71st with the short stick last year (in an 80-man field).
And what about Cameron Young? The Ryder Cup star has made three starts at Pebble with a best of T70.
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The post Who wins at Pebble Beach? Our expert guide to the 2026 Pro-Am appeared first on Golf365.
Article Link: Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2026 predictions: Scheffler, McNealy and more