Here’s a question for you: What made Justin Thomas’ victory in the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills not just remarkable, but exceptional?!?
You might recall that the triumph was reliant on a sensational final round performance.
You might successfully guess that the Sunday lap holds the key to this riddle.
But it would almost certainly still surprise you to what extend the Kentucky man’s Sunday stands out from all other recent PGA Championship final rounds.
Because, you see, Thomas started that final round four years ago seven shots off the lead in a share of seventh place.
And, since 1996, to have been in that position normally represented less than a 5% chance of victory.
In fact, of the last 30 winners of the PGA Championship no less than 29 were tied fourth or better with 18 holes to play, 25 of them were tied third or better, and no less than 24 of the were tied second or better!
In fact, generally speaking, all major championship winners need to be in the lead or right on the shoulder of the pace setter to land the prize.
Take the Masters.
Since the start of 1996, 31 of 31 winners were tied fifth or better with one round to play (and 30 of those were tied fourth or better).
In the US Open, 30 of the last 30 winners were tied eighth or better after 54 holes (26 of them tied fourth or better).
And in the Open? 28 of 29 champions were tied ninth or better – and 23 of them were tied fourth or better (the exception was Paul Lawrie in 1999 who was T14 with 18 holes to play).
If those numbers suggest that the Open – by the seaside, of course, so given to difficult conditions – is the major most vulnerable to volatility, then the American majors are anything but.
Put together, 85 of the last 91 major championship winners in the United States were tied fourth or better with one round to play.
So how did Justin Thomas buck the trend in such spectacular fashion?
Well, incredibly, his first movement was backwards.
He made a bogey at the third and was therefore quickly eight shots behind the leader, Mito Pereira.
He recovered that dropped shot at 5 but gave it back at 6 was was still eight shots in arrears after he’d played eight holes.
The first momentum shift came either side of the turn: Thomas made birdies at 9, 11 and 12 while Pereira dropped shots at 7 and 8.
Thomas remained calm. Only one man who ultimately finished top eight didn’t drop a shot on the final six holes – and that was Thomas.
He only made one birdie but it was enough to set a difficult clubhouse target of 5-under-par and, one by one, the other contenders failed to match it.
Matt Fitzpatrick had started the day on that number and fell back by two shots.
Cameron Young had opened the day on 4-under, reached 6-under, then stumbled late in the day.
Pereira was 6-under on the final tee, but made a double bogey to miss out on playing extra holes.
Only Will Zalatoris stood firm. He started the day on 6-under and a birdie at 17 helped him tie Thomas, but he was beaten in the three-hole play-off.
Thomas’ seven shot comeback was the biggest in the PGA Championship since John Mahaffey’s win in 1978.
There was something else that made the effort unlikely. Stats can’t verify that it is unique but Thomas suspected it was. “Can’t be many major winners who hit a shank,” he said, of his errant blow on the sixth hole.
But remember the really important lesson: unless something special happens, the likelihood is that the winner of this year’s PGA Championship will be tied fourth or better on Saturday night.
Read next: The uncomfortable truth about the PGA Championship exposed
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