PGA Championship week is upon us.
The year’s second major features three prominent players coming into the tournament coming off of a win, an oddity caused by pro golf’s convoluted calendar and Scottie Scheffler taking time off while becoming a dad for the first time.
So while I still wish the PGA went all-in on a match play format, we have the recipe for an exciting leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Early indications are that this tournament will be a ballstriking contest rather than a test of strategy and short game.
Valhalla favors long bombers and top-tier iron players. Get ready to see a lot of mid-irons. The par-3s average 216 yards on the scorecard, a sign that the winner needs to be very strong in the 4-to-7-iron range throughout the week.
Who will come away victorious in Kentucky? I’ve studied it from every angle and think that the winner will come from one of these 10 guys.
In no particular order, here is who can win this week in Louisville.
Scottie Scheffler
Everyone is looking up at the clear-cut best player in the world. We’re trying to figure out who the second-best player is—and I’m not sure there is a right answer to that—but Scheffler is undoubtedly ahead of the field by a wide margin.
I’m running out of ways to describe Scheffler’s greatness over the past two years. He ranks first on the PGA Tour for strokes gained total, tee-to-green, off-the-tee, approach, green-in-regulation percentage, proximity to the hole and birdie percentage.
The only good reason not to pick him is that he’s been off for nearly a month since winning four times in five starts. His worst finish the whole year is a T17.
As I write this, Scheffler is +375 to win. Ridiculous odds for a full-field major.
The only person in the same neighborhood on the odds sheet is…
Rory McIlroy
Are we all ready to be hurt again?
McIlroy has a decade-worth of major close-calls and failures as evidence for why he won’t win this week, but there is mounting evidence for why this could be the spot he gets major No. 5.
He won at Valhalla in 2014, and the course suits him well. Data Golf’s course fit tool says that Valhalla is similar to Quail Hollow in terms of what skills you need. Notably, driving the ball long and straight has more value than at a place like Augusta National. If we get soft conditions, that is all the more reason for Rory to have success this week.
And speaking of Quail Hollow, McIlroy just won there again last week for a fourth time. He also won the Zurich Classic recently with partner Shane Lowry.
He’s been mired in drama off the course. McIlroy was recently denied from the PGA Tour board (but then added to a separate transaction committee for negotiating a golf-unification deal with the Saudis) and also filed for divorce from his wife on Monday.
Maybe golf is a bubble away from that this week.
Brooks Koepka
The defending champion can’t be left off this list.
Koepka is a great fit for PGA Championships and U.S. Opens because of his strength and patience. He’s won three of the last six PGAs and all three of them have been by two-stroke margins.
Unlike last month at the Masters where he finished well out of contention, Koepka appears to be coming into this PGA with more momentum given his win at LIV Singapore.
He’s surprisingly down to No. 49 in Data Golf’s rankings, but everyone is fully aware that Koepka peaks for majors unlike anyone else.
He’ll be the top option for LIV to have success in this major after LIV players had a collectively mediocre performance at Augusta.
Ludvig Åberg
Åberg is among the favorites to win despite this only being his second major championship.
The reasons why he can win are obvious. Åberg is phenomenal off the tee—a particularly valuable skill at Valhalla—and had a stellar showing at last month’s Masters when he finished runner-up to Scheffler. Data Golf has the 24-year-old Swede at No. 4 in their rankings. He’s a legit superstar.
But there is one big reason why he might not win, and it has to do with a knee injury that kept him out of last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Åberg appears to be wearing a brace during practice rounds this week, so that is something to watch.
Bryson DeChambeau
Watch out. This is a great course fit for Bryson.
DeChambeau gained nearly two strokes per round with his driver during the Masters, which is part of the reason he vaulted to an early lead before fading over the weekend. He isn’t quite as fast as he used to be, but he can still crush it.
Chipping and pitching isn’t his strong suit—it was his downfall at Augusta—but that deficiency could get obscured this week given the incessantly thick rough surrounding Valhalla’s greens. It’s a guessing game for everyone.
Bryson should have a lot of opportunity on the par-5s. Over the course of 72 holes, I think that advantage will be tough for most of the field to overcome.
He has a realistic shot to win. His odds (+2500) are the seventh-best in the field as I write this.
Jon Rahm
We’ve all seemed to forget about Rahm (+1800) after he went to LIV. Well, at least as it relates to his play in between the ropes.
He’s still the fifth-best player in the world according to both Data Golf and the OWGR. And despite a T45 at the Masters—his putter really let him down that week—Rahm has been playing solid golf on LIV.
He fits the prototype for the kind of player that can win here.
Xander Schauffele
I don’t want to do it, but I have to put Schauffele on here.
I get it—he has a pattern of not closing out tournaments. His last win came at the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open. We’ve seen him not get the job done multiple times this year, including last week when McIlroy zoomed past him around the turn on Sunday.
At the same time, Schauffele might be the best bet—outside of Scheffler—for a player guaranteed to get into contention. He is an under appreciated driver of the ball, ranking No. 9 in strokes gained off-the-tee, and he’s arguably playing the best golf of his career.
He has to win a major eventually, right?
Cameron Young
Speaking of someone who has struggled to win, Cameron Young comes into this week with no Tour victories but a healthy amount of success in majors.
Young has five top-10 finishes in 11 major starts. His ballstriking is outstanding, and harder courses with thick rough allows him to separate from most of the field.
Young is playing some solid golf this year, including a runner-up at the Valspar and a T9 in the Masters. He played collegiately at Wake Forest and has plenty of golf experience in the southeast.
Winning will be a tall order, but I think he can definitely get into contention.
Will Zalatoris
I’m torn on Zalatoris, a player who has shown he has the game to come inches away from winning a PGA Championship.
He has seven top-10 finishes in 11 major starts, including a trio of runner-ups. The eye test screams that he has the ability. Like Young, he comes to life when the spotlight shines brighter during majors. He’s a ballstriking menace that should be a great fit for Valhalla.
Zalatoris returned from back surgery and has put together some great starts this year, including a T2 (Genesis Invitational), T4 (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and T9 (Masters).
At the same time, there could be lingering effects with the back injury. He’s played poorly in his last three starts, which partly explains his +4000 odds to win.
This is a low floor, high ceiling selection. He could withdraw or he could contend.
Wyndham Clark
I struggled with this last pick. Ultimately, I think Clark has the best shot to win among the group I had left.
Clark has been all over the place in 2024, posting four top-3 finishes but not a single top-25 result in the other seven starts.
One of those disappointing showings was the Masters, but that can be forgiven. Augusta is traditionally a tough spot for first-timers, even if Åberg made it look simple.
Clark is a strong driver of the ball (No. 19 in strokes gained off-the-tee) and has a major win with the U.S. Open last year. Curiously, the PGA has not gone well for him—but this is his first real shot while being a top player in the world.
Honorable mention: Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Jason Day, Matt Fitzpatrick
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